The global seaborne coal market has observed a notable recovery in 2026, with exports witnessing a 3% increase year-on-year during the first nine months. This growth comes as a contrast to the 4% decline experienced in 2025, primarily driven by disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies and evolving demand dynamics within Asia.
According to research from IFCHOR GALBRAITHS (IG), an increasing number of Asian power utilities are turning to coal to meet their energy needs due to the instability in LNG shipments, particularly through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. This shift underscores a broader trend of changing energy strategies in response to supply chain constraints.
Changing Demand Patterns
Data from IG’s Coal Markets Companion Report indicates that from March to September 2026, Asian seaborne thermal coal imports remained generally stable at approximately 550 million tonnes. However, this stability masked significant regional variations: imports from China decreased by 7%, and Indian purchases fell by 10%, while other nations in Asia, including South Korea, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, and Vietnam, increased their coal imports by around 10%.
Laura Gomez, a researcher at IFCHOR GALBRAITHS, emphasized the importance of recognizing these underlying trends, stating, “The recovery in seaborne coal trade is particularly interesting because it is happening despite falling imports into China and India. Demand is shifting towards other Asian markets, partly in response to LNG supply disruption, while changes in sourcing are affecting established trade routes.”
Supply Constraints
On the supply front, Indonesia, which accounts for approximately 47% of global seaborne thermal coal trade, recorded a 7% drop in exports during the first three quarters of 2026. Notably, coal exports from Indonesia fell by 16% in the third quarter alone. Looking ahead, IG projects that Indonesian coal exports will decline further, potentially reaching about 450 million tonnes by 2030.
In contrast, the global metallurgical coal market demonstrated robust growth, with a 10% increase in seaborne trade year-on-year during the same period. Australian metallurgical coal exports rose by 13%, with shipments to China almost doubling amid a tighter market for this specific coal type.
Coal 360 – A New Market Intelligence Service
The insights from IG coincide with the launch of a new market intelligence service, Coal 360, designed to provide in-depth analysis and forecasts of global thermal and metallurgical coal markets. The service will cover production trends, export dynamics, trade flows, and vessel deployment, providing operators with essential data to navigate this evolving landscape.
Behind the Headline
The resurgence of seaborne coal trade indicates a complex interplay between shifting energy needs and geopolitical disruptions. Operators and charterers must be agile, adjusting to emerging markets while rethinking traditional trade routes. The declining exports from Indonesia highlight the need for sourcing flexibility, particularly as Asia pivots away from its previous reliance on major suppliers. Stakeholders should monitor regional demand changes closely, as diversifying sourcing strategies may become critical in maintaining supply chain stability amid ongoing energy uncertainties.
