EmissionLink has raised urgent concerns regarding the recent decrease in FuelEU Maritime surplus prices, which could compromise the regulation’s effectiveness in promoting a shift towards lower-carbon fuels among shipowners. Since the close of the first reporting year of FuelEU at the end of June, the active compliance market has seen shipowners swiftly adapt by engaging in pooling, utilizing biofuels, and participating in surplus trading rather than facing penalties.
Market Overview
However, the rapid decline in surplus prices—from approximately €175-€185 per unit during the peak compliance period to around €120-€130 post-pooling—suggests an oversupply of compliance options, driven by substantial long positions, banked surpluses, and unanticipated generation of compliance units. According to Philippos Ioulianou, Managing Director of EmissionLink, the plentiful availability and lower cost of compliance units prompt a critical evaluation: if buying compliance becomes more economical than investing in lower-carbon fuels, the primary objectives of FuelEU may not be realized.
Regulatory Implications
